As we enter 2026, the French real estate market has moved beyond the “wait-and-see” phase of previous years. Following a period of correction and stabilization throughout 2025, the housing market is now characterized by measured growth and a return to rational transaction volumes.

Data from the Chambre des Notaires, Insee, and MeilleurAgents suggest a national price increase of 2% to 3% for 2026, reflecting a market that is healthy but no longer speculative.

Market Review: The 2025 Rebound

The year 2025 served as a turning point. After reaching a low in 2024, transaction volumes saw a significant recovery, driven by a more fluid lending environment.

• Transaction Volumes: Sales of existing homes rebounded to approximately 925,000 units annually by late 2025 (+11% year-on-year), a level similar to 2017 benchmarks (Source: Conseil Supérieur du Notariat).
• Price Stabilization: According to Insee, national prices for existing apartments rose by +1.3% in late 2025, while house prices grew by a modest +0.2%, signaling the end of the downward cycle.

Key Drivers for 2026

1. The New Interest Rate “Norm”

The era of 1% rates is over, but 2026 offers stability. The Observatoire Crédit Logement/CSA notes that mortgage rates have plateaued. For a 20-year term, average rates are projected to fluctuate between 3.2% and 3.6% throughout 2026. This predictability allows buyers to plan long-term acquisitions with confidence, as the “shock” of previous rate hikes has been fully absorbed by market prices.

2. Structural Supply Scarcity

A critical factor supporting prices in 2026 is the persistent housing deficit. BPCE Group studies highlight a continuing stagnation in new builds (the neuf sector), which funnels demand into the existing market (l’ancien). With authorized housing starts lagging far behind the national demand of 400,000 units, supply-side pressure remains a primary floor for property values.

3. The “Green” Valuation Gap

Energy performance is now a central pillar of property valuation. The Notaires de France report that the price gap based on DPE (Energy Performance Certificate) ratings is widening:

• A-B rated homes command a 10% to 15% premium in most regions.
• G-rated properties (“passoires thermiques”) face value discounts of up to 25% in certain provinces, offering strategic entry points for investors willing to undertake renovation projects.

Regional Forecasts: 2026 Growth Projections

Strategic Insights for Buyers

For those entering the market in 2026, the focus has shifted from “market timing” to asset quality.

• The “Value” Sector: Mid-sized cities in the Grand Ouest and Grand Est continue to offer attractive yields.
• Financing Advantage: Specialized lending continues to be accessible. While banks remain diligent regarding debt-to-income ratios, the stabilization of the OAT 10-year (government bond yield) around 3.1% – 3.5% provides a stable backdrop for bank margins and competitive borrower offers.
• Renovation Incentives: With the 2026 regulatory calendar tightening for rental properties, “D” and “E” rated properties represent the most fertile ground for negotiation, as sellers look to exit before new renovation mandates take full effect.

Summary: The 2026 French property market is defined by stability and selectivity. With rates having found their equilibrium and prices rising modestly, it remains one of Europe’s most secure environments for long-term capital preservation